Are entrepreneurs' forecasts of economic indicators biased?

Are Economic Forecasts Rational?

Forecasts , Indicators , And Monetary Policy

Conducti ng monetary policy is a difficult business. It's easy enough to set a policy goal such as price stability or low and stable inflation , but because monetary policy affects the economy with a lag, achieving those goals requires an ability to peer into the future. A change in the money supply or interest rates today won't affect inflation for months, or even years, down the road. Consequ...

Combining Economic Forecasts

Who Are China ’ s Entrepreneurs ?

It has been increasingly recognized that entrepreneurship plays a crucial role in successful economies. The Schumpeterian approach to growth (Aghion and Howitt, 1997) advances the view that entrepreneurial dynamism is the key to innovation and growth. A growing body of policy work emphasizes the important role of entrepreneurs in economic development (World Bank, 2003). Yet, research on entrepr...

Analyzing theAnalysts: Career Concerns and Biased Earnings Forecasts

We examine security analysts’career concerns by relating their earnings forecasts to job separations. Relatively accurate forecasters are more likely to experience favorable career outcomes like moving up to a high-status brokerage house. Controlling for accuracy, analysts who are optimistic relative to the consensus are more likely to experience favorable job separations. For analysts who cove...